President's FY 2015 Budget Released
On Tuesday, March 4, President Obama released his FY 2015 budget for the year that starts on October 1, 2014. The White House press release is here, and the press briefing is here. The actual FY 2015 budget -- with a link to past budgets -- can be found at the Office of Management and Budget's website here.
Perhaps the most non-partisan analysis of the budget is that performed by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which is here. The "main findings" from their analysis include:
- "Relative to the President's own baseline, the budget includes $2.15 trillion of deficit reductiion. Relative to current law with continued reductions in war spending, the budget calls for about $730 billion of deficit reduction.
- "Under the President's budget, debt would peak at 74.6 percent of GDP in 2015 and then fall continuously to 69 percent by 2024. In dollar terms, debt will rise from about $12.5 trillion today to almost $19 trillion by 2024.
- "Adjusted for timing shifts, deficits will fall from 4.1 percent of GDP in 2013 to 2.2 percent by 2017, and will remain around 2 percent through 2024.
- "Spending will average 21.4 percent of GDP over the decade and reach 21.7 percent by 2024 while revenue will average 19.2 percent and reach 19.9 percent by 2024. Historically, spending and revenue have averaged 20.4 and 17.4 percent of GDP, respectively.
- "OMB's economic assumptions are more optimistic than CBO -- they assume real GDP will be more than 2 percent higher in 2024 than CBO does. This difference could be the result of immigration reform, which CBO has estimated could raise GDP by over 3 percent.
Those points, admittedly, are high level, but they are worth keeping in mind. CFRB's preliminary analysis is eight pages, and includes a number of very useful tables that are worth remembering as you read news reports about the budget. We will growl further about the budget throughout the year.